01 · 样本边界与题材宽度
15 个归档交易日已有至少 3 个真实归档日：可观察持续性，但统计仍不构成交易建议。
| 日期 | 可观测 | 触板 | 收盘封板 | 开板 | 触板宽度 | 封板成功率 | 开板失败率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 221 | 40 | 19 | 21 | 18.10% | 47.50% | 52.50% |
| 2026-07-13 | 223 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1.35% | 66.67% | 33.33% |
| 2026-07-14 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.45% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| 2026-07-15 | 223 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | MISSING | MISSING |
| 2026-07-16 | 223 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2.24% | 40.00% | 60.00% |
| 2026-07-17 | 223 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.45% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-20 | 223 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | MISSING | MISSING |
| 2026-07-21 | 223 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3.14% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-22 | 223 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.90% | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 2026-07-23 | 223 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 3.59% | 87.50% | 12.50% |
| 2026-07-24 | 223 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1.35% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-27 | 223 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1.79% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-28 | 223 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1.35% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-29 | 223 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.45% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-30 | 223 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | MISSING | MISSING |
02 · 个股持续性矩阵
| 证券 | 观察日 | 触板日 | 封板日 | 开板日 | 连续归档封板 | 触板后封住 | 区间日均 | 中位回落 | 最新 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 长缆科技002879 | 15 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +1.74% | 2.41pp | -9.98% |
| 星网宇达002829 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.53% | 3.29pp | -9.25% |
| 天融信002212 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.86% | 2.00pp | -4.70% |
| 中信重工601608 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.18% | 1.11pp | -0.43% |
| 华菱线缆001208 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.53% | 4.25pp | -5.19% |
| 九丰能源605090 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.69% | 1.90pp | -5.66% |
| 三维通信002115 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.00% | +0.31% | 3.56pp | -4.58% |
| 景旺电子603228 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.00% | +0.12% | 5.10pp | -10.00% |
| 赛伍技术603212 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.00% | -0.07% | 2.94pp | +0.75% |
| 魅视科技001229 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.00% | -2.24% | 6.01pp | -10.00% |
| 火炬电子603678 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.00% | -2.80% | 7.38pp | -4.93% |
| 和顺电气300141 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.86% | 3.28pp | -5.05% |
| 格林精密300968 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.75% | 2.38pp | -11.09% |
| 国电南自600268 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.33% | 0.99pp | -0.27% |
| 中光防雷300414 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.32% | 2.84pp | -6.21% |
| 电科数字600850 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.29% | 0.75pp | +0.39% |
| 矩子科技300802 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.14% | 3.96pp | -7.57% |
| 中瑞股份301587 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.18% | 2.81pp | -4.58% |
| 高德红外002414 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.30% | 2.14pp | -9.99% |
| 佳缘科技301117 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.33% | 4.03pp | -5.08% |
| 金风科技002202 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.69% | 2.61pp | -0.39% |
| 通达股份002560 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.76% | 3.26pp | -2.44% |
| 航天科技000901 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.96% | 2.30pp | -1.28% |
| 航天发展000547 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -1.10% | 2.51pp | -3.03% |
| 中国卫通601698 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -1.21% | 2.52pp | -2.50% |
| 和而泰002402 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -1.26% | 2.67pp | -2.85% |
| 中天火箭003009 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -1.35% | 4.60pp | -6.08% |
| 康达新材002669 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -1.36% | 3.51pp | -1.67% |
| 国瓷材料300285 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -1.41% | 7.00pp | +3.65% |
| 神剑股份002361 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -1.67% | 3.62pp | -4.97% |
| 奥普光电002338 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -1.75% | 4.35pp | -0.15% |
| 巨力索具002342 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -2.25% | 3.09pp | -4.26% |
| 上海港湾605598 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -2.26% | 3.86pp | -4.21% |
| 中国卫星600118 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -2.48% | 5.18pp | -5.03% |
| 航天电子600879 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -2.55% | 3.71pp | -4.62% |
| 天通股份600330 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -2.59% | 5.22pp | -9.99% |
| 海兰信300065 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -3.01% | 5.50pp | -6.06% |
| 博敏电子603936 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -3.17% | 6.02pp | -7.44% |
| 中材科技002080 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -3.51% | 6.97pp | -2.96% |
| 沃格光电603773 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -3.92% | 8.00pp | -10.01% |
| 抚顺特钢600399 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | +0.49% | 1.56pp | +0.97% |
| 烽火电子000561 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | +0.43% | 0.87pp | +1.62% |
| 龙溪股份600592 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | -0.15% | 1.76pp | -1.71% |
| 南山智尚300918 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | -0.23% | 1.55pp | -1.63% |
| 航天晨光600501 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | -0.35% | 2.54pp | -1.66% |
| 中衡设计603017 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | -0.35% | 1.75pp | -1.58% |
| 北斗星通002151 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | -0.48% | 2.87pp | -0.18% |
| 中超控股002471 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | -0.49% | 3.10pp | -2.68% |
| 杭氧股份002430 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | -0.55% | 2.02pp | -1.16% |
| 雷科防务002413 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00% | -0.92% | 2.63pp | -2.52% |
03 · 前次封板组合延续
| 归档日期对 | 组合数 | 下次可见 | 下次均值 | 下次中位数 | 上涨占比 | 再封数 | 再封率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10→ 2026-07-13 | 19 | 19 | -3.96% | -5.36% | 31.58% | 2 | 10.53% |
| 2026-07-13→ 2026-07-14 | 2 | 2 | -6.55% | -6.55% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-14→ 2026-07-15 | 0 | 0 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 0 | MISSING |
| 2026-07-15→ 2026-07-16 | 0 | 0 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 0 | MISSING |
| 2026-07-16→ 2026-07-17 | 2 | 2 | +9.48% | +9.48% | 100.00% | 1 | 50.00% |
| 2026-07-17→ 2026-07-20 | 1 | 1 | -3.38% | -3.38% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-20→ 2026-07-21 | 0 | 0 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 0 | MISSING |
| 2026-07-21→ 2026-07-22 | 7 | 7 | -0.39% | -1.38% | 42.86% | 1 | 14.29% |
| 2026-07-22→ 2026-07-23 | 1 | 1 | +9.99% | +9.99% | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| 2026-07-23→ 2026-07-24 | 7 | 7 | -1.04% | -1.68% | 28.57% | 1 | 14.29% |
| 2026-07-24→ 2026-07-27 | 3 | 3 | +5.17% | +7.81% | 66.67% | 1 | 33.33% |
| 2026-07-27→ 2026-07-28 | 4 | 4 | -6.37% | -7.41% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-28→ 2026-07-29 | 3 | 3 | +1.17% | +1.11% | 66.67% | 1 | 33.33% |
| 2026-07-29→ 2026-07-30 | 1 | 1 | -4.70% | -4.70% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
04 · 事件封板组合跟踪
| 日期 | 可见 | 等权锚点收益 | 中位收益 | 锚点后上涨占比 | 当日再封 | 再封率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 19 | +0.00% | +0.00% | 0.00% | 19 | 100.00% |
| 2026-07-13 | 19 | -3.96% | -5.36% | 31.58% | 2 | 10.53% |
| 2026-07-14 | 19 | -11.54% | -12.07% | 10.53% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-15 | 19 | -13.74% | -15.56% | 10.53% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-16 | 19 | -15.14% | -16.61% | 5.26% | 1 | 5.26% |
| 2026-07-17 | 19 | -18.86% | -22.17% | 15.79% | 1 | 5.26% |
| 2026-07-20 | 19 | -21.78% | -24.54% | 10.53% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-21 | 19 | -19.67% | -21.85% | 10.53% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-22 | 19 | -20.88% | -22.95% | 10.53% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-23 | 19 | -19.24% | -21.24% | 10.53% | 1 | 5.26% |
| 2026-07-24 | 19 | -21.96% | -23.87% | 5.26% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-27 | 19 | -20.22% | -21.68% | 5.26% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-28 | 19 | -21.53% | -22.36% | 5.26% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-29 | 19 | -21.38% | -21.96% | 5.26% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-30 | 19 | -24.98% | -24.33% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
05 · 供应链证据与价格持续性
| 公司 | 证据等级 | 观察日 | 封板日 | 开板日 | 区间日均 | 最新 | 证据边界 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 海兰信300065 | 回收系统披露 | 15 | 1 | 0 | -3.01% | -6.06% | 披露未点名长征十号乙或领航者平台。 |
| 超捷股份301005 | 可复用火箭相邻 | 15 | 0 | 1 | -3.26% | -5.04% | 客户以国内头部民营火箭公司为主，不能外推到长征十号乙。 |
| 斯瑞新材688102 | 可复用火箭相邻 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 未披露本次型号供货关系。 |
| 航天电子600879 | 泛航天业务 | 15 | 1 | 0 | -2.55% | -4.62% | 广义配套不能替代本次任务供货证明。 |
| 航天环宇688523 | 泛航天业务 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 未披露长征十号乙或网捕系统关系。 |
| 高华科技688539 | 泛航天业务 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 未披露本次任务或型号。 |
| 南山智尚300918 | 代理叙事未证实 | 15 | 0 | 1 | -0.23% | -1.63% | 未证明材料进入回收网。 |
| 中船防务600685 | 代理叙事未证实 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 不得等同为上市公司已披露的火箭回收经营收入。 |
| 同益中688722 | 代理叙事未证实 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 未证明材料进入回收网。 |
| 巨力索具002342 | 澄清 / 排除 | 15 | 1 | 0 | -2.25% | -4.26% | 价格涨停不能覆盖澄清与监管风险。 |
| 航天工程603698 | 澄清 / 排除 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 证券简称和集团归属不是火箭供应链证明。 |
06 · 统计口径
hit_breadth_pct(closed_limit + opened_limit) / observed concept members
seal_rate_pctclosed_limit / all stocks that hit the daily limit
next_archive_returnnext archived date close_pct for the prior archive's closed-limit cohort; equals D+1 only with complete trade-date archives
event_cohort_returnequal-weight close/anchor-close return for the first archived date's closed-limit cohort
archive_streakconsecutive archived dates closed at limit; only equals a trading-day streak when every trade date is archived