01 · 样本边界与题材宽度
37 个归档交易日已有至少 3 个真实归档日：可观察持续性，但统计仍不构成交易建议。
| 日期 | 可观测 | 触板 | 收盘封板 | 开板 | 触板宽度 | 封板成功率 | 开板失败率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 221 | 40 | 19 | 21 | 18.10% | 47.50% | 52.50% |
| 2026-07-13 | 223 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1.35% | 66.67% | 33.33% |
| 2026-07-14 | 223 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.45% | 0.00% | 100.00% |
| 2026-07-15 | 223 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | MISSING | MISSING |
| 2026-07-16 | 223 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2.24% | 40.00% | 60.00% |
| 2026-07-17 | 223 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.45% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-20 | 223 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | MISSING | MISSING |
| 2026-07-21 | 223 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3.14% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-22 | 223 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.90% | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 2026-07-23 | 223 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 3.59% | 87.50% | 12.50% |
| 2026-07-24 | 223 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1.35% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-27 | 223 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1.79% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-28 | 223 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1.35% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-29 | 223 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.45% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-30 | 223 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | MISSING | MISSING |
| 2026-07-31 | 223 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 5.38% | 16.67% | 83.33% |
| 2026-08-03 | 223 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 3.59% | 75.00% | 25.00% |
| 2026-08-04 | 223 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 6.28% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-08-05 | 223 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 5.38% | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 2026-08-06 | 223 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 4.04% | 88.89% | 11.11% |
| 2026-08-07 | 223 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 4.93% | 72.73% | 27.27% |
| 2026-08-10 | 223 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.90% | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 2026-08-11 | 223 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1.35% | 66.67% | 33.33% |
| 2026-08-12 | 223 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1.79% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-08-31 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.45% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-01 | 222 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00% | MISSING | MISSING |
| 2026-09-14 | 222 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 4.05% | 77.78% | 22.22% |
| 2026-09-15 | 222 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.90% | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 2026-09-16 | 222 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1.35% | 66.67% | 33.33% |
| 2026-09-17 | 222 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1.35% | 33.33% | 66.67% |
| 2026-09-18 | 222 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1.80% | 50.00% | 50.00% |
| 2026-09-21 | 222 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1.80% | 75.00% | 25.00% |
| 2026-09-22 | 222 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1.35% | 66.67% | 33.33% |
| 2026-09-23 | 222 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1.35% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-24 | 222 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1.35% | 33.33% | 66.67% |
| 2026-09-28 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.45% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-29 | 222 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0.90% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
02 · 个股持续性矩阵
| 证券 | 观察日 | 触板日 | 封板日 | 开板日 | 连续归档封板 | 触板后封住 | 区间日均 | 中位回落 | 最新 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 澳弘电子605058 | 37 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 100.00% | +1.51% | 0.81pp | +10.00% |
| 沃格光电603773 | 37 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 66.67% | -0.42% | 4.92pp | -9.39% |
| 通宇通讯002792 | 37 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 75.00% | +0.46% | 2.73pp | -0.43% |
| 长缆科技002879 | 37 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 85.71% | +1.13% | 1.78pp | -1.44% |
| 天融信002212 | 37 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 83.33% | +0.82% | 2.14pp | +1.37% |
| 中材科技002080 | 37 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 50.00% | -0.46% | 5.25pp | +4.06% |
| 景旺电子603228 | 37 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 66.67% | +0.70% | 3.87pp | +5.82% |
| 魅视科技001229 | 37 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 66.67% | -0.20% | 2.89pp | +2.81% |
| 云南锗业002428 | 37 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 80.00% | +0.05% | 3.34pp | -0.69% |
| 天通股份600330 | 37 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 80.00% | -0.05% | 3.23pp | +0.11% |
| 东方钽业000962 | 37 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.00% | -0.16% | 3.54pp | -0.09% |
| 中京电子002579 | 37 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.00% | -0.31% | 4.11pp | +3.47% |
| 博敏电子603936 | 37 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 75.00% | -0.63% | 3.87pp | +5.28% |
| 星网宇达002829 | 37 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.67% | 1.20pp | -0.15% |
| 神剑股份002361 | 37 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.12% | 2.69pp | -3.45% |
| 华菱线缆001208 | 37 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.04% | 2.03pp | -1.36% |
| 三维通信002115 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.67% | +0.33% | 1.78pp | -1.26% |
| 康达新材002669 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.67% | +0.07% | 2.24pp | -4.95% |
| 合锻智能603011 | 37 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 66.67% | -0.20% | 3.40pp | +2.72% |
| 北化股份002246 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.94% | 1.56pp | +0.72% |
| 金 螳 螂002081 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.33% | 1.89pp | +0.42% |
| 中信重工601608 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.12% | 1.05pp | +0.44% |
| 大元泵业603757 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.11% | 3.38pp | +4.97% |
| 通达股份002560 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.19% | 1.55pp | +0.15% |
| 巨力索具002342 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.23% | 1.37pp | -2.65% |
| 九丰能源605090 | 37 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.31% | 1.32pp | -2.00% |
| 火炬电子603678 | 37 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 25.00% | -0.97% | 3.92pp | +0.71% |
| 中超控股002471 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.33% | -0.01% | 1.11pp | -0.95% |
| 鹏鼎控股002938 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.33% | -0.25% | 3.43pp | +0.36% |
| 立昂微605358 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 33.33% | -0.58% | 2.58pp | +0.96% |
| 崇达技术002815 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 50.00% | -0.11% | 3.06pp | +9.99% |
| 城建发展600266 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.00% | +0.71% | 0.96pp | +5.40% |
| 赛伍技术603212 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.00% | +0.24% | 1.83pp | +0.00% |
| 雷科防务002413 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.00% | +0.16% | 2.17pp | -4.14% |
| 江顺科技001400 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.00% | -0.15% | 1.87pp | +2.98% |
| 天奥电子002935 | 37 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50.00% | -0.15% | 1.69pp | -0.77% |
| 佳缘科技301117 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +1.09% | 2.96pp | +6.06% |
| 格林精密300968 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.78% | 1.52pp | +1.05% |
| 一博科技301366 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.69% | 4.03pp | +9.09% |
| 和顺电气300141 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.53% | 1.82pp | +2.46% |
| 中瑞股份301587 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.48% | 1.52pp | +0.40% |
| 旋极信息300324 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.44% | 1.30pp | -0.52% |
| 飞亚达000026 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.33% | 1.78pp | -0.43% |
| 吉大正元003029 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.32% | 1.66pp | +1.52% |
| 矩子科技300802 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.28% | 2.43pp | -1.80% |
| 中光防雷300414 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.11% | 1.38pp | +0.95% |
| 电科数字600850 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.04% | 1.37pp | +1.19% |
| 国电南自600268 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | +0.01% | 1.34pp | +1.01% |
| 高德红外002414 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.05% | 1.38pp | -0.88% |
| 宝武镁业002182 | 37 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00% | -0.11% | 1.23pp | +0.64% |
03 · 前次封板组合延续
| 归档日期对 | 组合数 | 下次可见 | 下次均值 | 下次中位数 | 上涨占比 | 再封数 | 再封率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10→ 2026-07-13 | 19 | 19 | -3.96% | -5.36% | 31.58% | 2 | 10.53% |
| 2026-07-13→ 2026-07-14 | 2 | 2 | -6.55% | -6.55% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-14→ 2026-07-15 | 0 | 0 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 0 | MISSING |
| 2026-07-15→ 2026-07-16 | 0 | 0 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 0 | MISSING |
| 2026-07-16→ 2026-07-17 | 2 | 2 | +9.48% | +9.48% | 100.00% | 1 | 50.00% |
| 2026-07-17→ 2026-07-20 | 1 | 1 | -3.38% | -3.38% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-20→ 2026-07-21 | 0 | 0 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 0 | MISSING |
| 2026-07-21→ 2026-07-22 | 7 | 7 | -0.39% | -1.38% | 42.86% | 1 | 14.29% |
| 2026-07-22→ 2026-07-23 | 1 | 1 | +9.99% | +9.99% | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| 2026-07-23→ 2026-07-24 | 7 | 7 | -1.04% | -1.68% | 28.57% | 1 | 14.29% |
| 2026-07-24→ 2026-07-27 | 3 | 3 | +5.17% | +7.81% | 66.67% | 1 | 33.33% |
| 2026-07-27→ 2026-07-28 | 4 | 4 | -6.37% | -7.41% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-28→ 2026-07-29 | 3 | 3 | +1.17% | +1.11% | 66.67% | 1 | 33.33% |
| 2026-07-29→ 2026-07-30 | 1 | 1 | -4.70% | -4.70% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-30→ 2026-07-31 | 0 | 0 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 0 | MISSING |
| 2026-07-31→ 2026-08-03 | 2 | 2 | +1.28% | +1.28% | 100.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-08-03→ 2026-08-04 | 6 | 6 | +7.28% | +7.45% | 100.00% | 3 | 50.00% |
| 2026-08-04→ 2026-08-05 | 14 | 14 | +7.07% | +8.04% | 100.00% | 5 | 35.71% |
| 2026-08-05→ 2026-08-06 | 6 | 6 | +5.75% | +6.44% | 83.33% | 2 | 33.33% |
| 2026-08-06→ 2026-08-07 | 8 | 8 | +4.48% | +8.14% | 75.00% | 4 | 50.00% |
| 2026-08-07→ 2026-08-10 | 8 | 8 | -0.56% | +0.85% | 62.50% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-08-10→ 2026-08-11 | 1 | 1 | +5.03% | +5.03% | 100.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-08-11→ 2026-08-12 | 2 | 2 | -2.79% | -2.79% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-08-12→ 2026-08-31 | 4 | 4 | +3.07% | +1.25% | 75.00% | 1 | 25.00% |
| 2026-08-31→ 2026-09-01 | 1 | 1 | -7.63% | -7.63% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-01→ 2026-09-14 | 0 | 0 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 0 | MISSING |
| 2026-09-14→ 2026-09-15 | 7 | 7 | +3.05% | +4.51% | 71.43% | 1 | 14.29% |
| 2026-09-15→ 2026-09-16 | 1 | 1 | +10.00% | +10.00% | 100.00% | 1 | 100.00% |
| 2026-09-16→ 2026-09-17 | 2 | 2 | +5.33% | +5.33% | 100.00% | 1 | 50.00% |
| 2026-09-17→ 2026-09-18 | 1 | 1 | -2.79% | -2.79% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-18→ 2026-09-21 | 2 | 2 | -0.64% | -0.64% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-21→ 2026-09-22 | 3 | 3 | -0.12% | +1.24% | 66.67% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-22→ 2026-09-23 | 2 | 2 | +2.83% | +2.83% | 50.00% | 1 | 50.00% |
| 2026-09-23→ 2026-09-24 | 3 | 3 | +0.42% | +2.73% | 66.67% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-24→ 2026-09-28 | 1 | 1 | +2.34% | +2.34% | 100.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-28→ 2026-09-29 | 1 | 1 | -2.65% | -2.65% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
04 · 事件封板组合跟踪
| 日期 | 可见 | 等权锚点收益 | 中位收益 | 锚点后上涨占比 | 当日再封 | 再封率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 19 | +0.00% | +0.00% | 0.00% | 19 | 100.00% |
| 2026-07-13 | 19 | -3.96% | -5.36% | 31.58% | 2 | 10.53% |
| 2026-07-14 | 19 | -11.54% | -12.07% | 10.53% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-15 | 19 | -13.74% | -15.56% | 10.53% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-16 | 19 | -15.14% | -16.61% | 5.26% | 1 | 5.26% |
| 2026-07-17 | 19 | -18.86% | -22.17% | 15.79% | 1 | 5.26% |
| 2026-07-20 | 19 | -21.78% | -24.54% | 10.53% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-21 | 19 | -19.67% | -21.85% | 10.53% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-22 | 19 | -20.88% | -22.95% | 10.53% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-23 | 19 | -19.24% | -21.24% | 10.53% | 1 | 5.26% |
| 2026-07-24 | 19 | -21.96% | -23.87% | 5.26% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-27 | 19 | -20.22% | -21.68% | 5.26% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-28 | 19 | -21.53% | -22.36% | 5.26% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-29 | 19 | -21.38% | -21.96% | 5.26% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-30 | 19 | -24.98% | -24.33% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-07-31 | 19 | -22.04% | -22.01% | 5.26% | 1 | 5.26% |
| 2026-08-03 | 19 | -18.98% | -19.81% | 10.53% | 2 | 10.53% |
| 2026-08-04 | 19 | -16.74% | -17.12% | 10.53% | 1 | 5.26% |
| 2026-08-05 | 19 | -15.06% | -15.30% | 10.53% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-08-06 | 19 | -14.41% | -13.81% | 10.53% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-08-07 | 19 | -12.96% | -12.05% | 10.53% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-08-10 | 19 | -11.59% | -9.80% | 10.53% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-08-11 | 19 | -14.52% | -13.70% | 10.53% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-08-12 | 19 | -12.85% | -11.89% | 15.79% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-08-31 | 18 | -20.68% | -22.06% | 5.56% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-01 | 18 | -19.71% | -20.80% | 11.11% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-14 | 18 | -21.79% | -20.45% | 5.56% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-15 | 18 | -22.68% | -21.77% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-16 | 18 | -21.58% | -19.54% | 5.56% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-17 | 18 | -22.73% | -21.17% | 5.56% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-18 | 18 | -21.02% | -19.31% | 5.56% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-21 | 18 | -20.44% | -19.08% | 5.56% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-22 | 18 | -21.35% | -19.69% | 5.56% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-23 | 18 | -23.03% | -21.44% | 5.56% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-24 | 18 | -22.93% | -20.96% | 5.56% | 0 | 0.00% |
| 2026-09-28 | 18 | -24.59% | -22.63% | 0.00% | 1 | 5.56% |
| 2026-09-29 | 18 | -25.41% | -23.56% | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
05 · 供应链证据与价格持续性
| 公司 | 证据等级 | 观察日 | 封板日 | 开板日 | 区间日均 | 最新 | 证据边界 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 海兰信300065 | 回收系统披露 | 37 | 1 | 0 | -0.95% | -0.81% | 披露未点名长征十号乙或领航者平台。 |
| 超捷股份301005 | 可复用火箭相邻 | 37 | 0 | 1 | -0.67% | -1.70% | 客户以国内头部民营火箭公司为主，不能外推到长征十号乙。 |
| 斯瑞新材688102 | 可复用火箭相邻 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 未披露本次型号供货关系。 |
| 航天电子600879 | 泛航天业务 | 37 | 1 | 0 | -0.76% | -1.30% | 广义配套不能替代本次任务供货证明。 |
| 航天环宇688523 | 泛航天业务 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 未披露长征十号乙或网捕系统关系。 |
| 高华科技688539 | 泛航天业务 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 未披露本次任务或型号。 |
| 南山智尚300918 | 代理叙事未证实 | 37 | 0 | 1 | +0.29% | -0.47% | 未证明材料进入回收网。 |
| 中船防务600685 | 代理叙事未证实 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 不得等同为上市公司已披露的火箭回收经营收入。 |
| 同益中688722 | 代理叙事未证实 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 未证明材料进入回收网。 |
| 巨力索具002342 | 澄清 / 排除 | 37 | 2 | 0 | -0.23% | -2.65% | 价格涨停不能覆盖澄清与监管风险。 |
| 航天工程603698 | 澄清 / 排除 | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | MISSING | 证券简称和集团归属不是火箭供应链证明。 |
06 · 统计口径
hit_breadth_pct(closed_limit + opened_limit) / observed concept members
seal_rate_pctclosed_limit / all stocks that hit the daily limit
next_archive_returnnext archived date close_pct for the prior archive's closed-limit cohort; equals D+1 only with complete trade-date archives
event_cohort_returnequal-weight close/anchor-close return for the first archived date's closed-limit cohort
archive_streakconsecutive archived dates closed at limit; only equals a trading-day streak when every trade date is archived